Paul Kelly analyzes Fantasy Points projections to identify significant discrepancies and recommend the best player prop and touchdown bets.
Each week, this space offers discrepancy-based player prop bets and “anytime” touchdown scorer picks. Week 8 marked the first losing record on player props, but the aim is to rebound strongly in Week 9.
Seeking an edge against sportsbooks, Paul began manually comparing John Hansen’s player projections with betting lines several years ago to spot the largest mismatches. Initially, this required looking up every prop individually. Now, a prop finder tool automates this process, allowing Paul to focus on selecting the best bets and securing the most favorable odds across books.
"Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a handful of years ago, I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities."
Using this approach consistently helps identify bets with value and improves overall results.
Author’s summary: Paul Kelly leverages projection discrepancies and a custom tool to find valuable player prop bets, aiming to improve accuracy and gains over the NFL season.