Labor should theoretically be confident ahead of the 2026 ...

Author's Summary

Labor appears well-positioned for a historic fourth term in Victoria's 2026 election due to its strong seat majority and Coalition challenges, though unfavorable polls for Premier Jacinta Allan signal potential vulnerabilities amid shifting voter preferences. (168 characters)

Labor's Strong Position

On the surface, Labor should feel optimistic about securing an unprecedented fourth consecutive term as Victorian voters assess Premier Jacinta Allan's government next year. The party holds 56 of 88 lower house seats from the 2022 election, with just 12 having margins under 5 percent—four against Greens. Two Labor MPs, Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman, later became independents.

Coalition's Uphill Battle

The Coalition starts with 29 seats and must net 16 more to win, a steep challenge. It struggles to appeal to voters under 50 at state or federal levels, hampered by internal divisions. Liberal MPs note voters are drifting from Labor but converting them remains tough.

Current Polling Trends

Recent polls from Newspoll, Redbridge, and Resolve show Labor's primary vote dropping to 28 percent, Coalition rising to 36 percent, and 22 percent eyeing independents or minors—up from 2022's 37 percent Labor, 34.4 percent Coalition. Despite this, Labor performs better in metro Melbourne, key for most seats. Pollster Kos Samaras calls it a "structural issue" for majors:

"Essentially, we are witnessing a structural issue that both major parties face regarding their primary vote."

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abc.net.au abc.net.au — 2025-11-29

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